Anthony Zurcher, BBC News' North America Reporter, recently wrote a very interesting analysis on why Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump has caught up to Democratic contender Hillary Clinton on national polls.
Late last year most national polls had Clinton with a 52% to 35% lead to Trump, an unsurprising chasm for most democrats who consider Trump to be a worst choice of president than good ol' 'W' was in the 2000 elections. But then, seemingly out of nowhere, wee see Trump and Hillary in a fierce polling battle where neither is consistently ahead.
So what happened? Beyond the massive unpopularity of both candidates ( dislike for the the other candidate is the major reason for people voting their respective candidates!), Zurcher proposes that this heated battle will cool down in favor of Hillary once the Democratic nomination settles, just like Trump's number saw a boost once the GOP swallowed their bile and began falling in line behind the man who best represents their constituency. So, the argument goes, as Sanders supporters give up the fight, they too will rally against Trump and reluctantly support Hillary.
Zurcher finishes with the caveat that pundits and prognosticators have learned to live by this election cycle: Trump is conventional wisdom proof, so really, predictions when it comes to him are useless and therefore take this with a grain of salt.
Late last year most national polls had Clinton with a 52% to 35% lead to Trump, an unsurprising chasm for most democrats who consider Trump to be a worst choice of president than good ol' 'W' was in the 2000 elections. But then, seemingly out of nowhere, wee see Trump and Hillary in a fierce polling battle where neither is consistently ahead.
So what happened? Beyond the massive unpopularity of both candidates ( dislike for the the other candidate is the major reason for people voting their respective candidates!), Zurcher proposes that this heated battle will cool down in favor of Hillary once the Democratic nomination settles, just like Trump's number saw a boost once the GOP swallowed their bile and began falling in line behind the man who best represents their constituency. So, the argument goes, as Sanders supporters give up the fight, they too will rally against Trump and reluctantly support Hillary.
Zurcher finishes with the caveat that pundits and prognosticators have learned to live by this election cycle: Trump is conventional wisdom proof, so really, predictions when it comes to him are useless and therefore take this with a grain of salt.
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